🏛️ Manipulation Hall of Fame
Documented prediction market manipulations — replayed through Sentinel's detection engine
Cases Documented
4
Would Catch
3/4
Detection Rate
75%
Profit Prevented
$26.5M
How the Replay Engine Works
News, Wayback & Social scouts gather evidence from that time period
Bayesian judge computes true probability from multi-source evidence
Deviation detector compares our estimate vs manipulated market price
If deviation ≥ 30%: auto-trigger UMA dispute on Polygon
Ukraine Peace Deal — $7M Manipulation
"Will Ukraine and Russia sign a peace deal by Dec 2024?"
✅
CAUGHT
Manipulated Price
65%
True Probability
8%
🤖 Sentinel Detection Method
Deviation detector: 57% gap triggers auto-dispute. Scout: No corroborating news sources found.
UFO Government Disclosure — $16M Manipulation
"Will US government officially confirm UFO intelligence by Q1 2024?"
✅
CAUGHT
Manipulated Price
48%
True Probability
3%
🤖 Sentinel Detection Method
Social Scout: 47 identical posts in 2h = coordinated_manipulation=True. News Scout: No credible sources. Watchdog auto-disputes at 45% deviation.
Venezuela Election Result — Price Manipulation
"Will Maduro be reelected in 2024 Venezuelan election?"
⚠️
PARTIAL
Manipulated Price
30%
True Probability
72%
🤖 Sentinel Detection Method
Partial: News Scout would detect early local reports. However 30% deviation may not meet 30% threshold at that moment.
ETH Spot ETF Approval — Spoofing Attack
"Will SEC approve an Ethereum spot ETF before May 2024?"
✅
CAUGHT
Manipulated Price
75%
True Probability
35%
🤖 Sentinel Detection Method
Market Data Scout: price moved >30% near resolution = manipulation_risk=True. Bayesian posterior: 35% YES probability. Deviation 40% → auto-dispute triggered.
Oracle Sentinel is live on Arc Testnet, monitoring Polymarket 24/7.
These historical cases demonstrate the detection system — Sentinel runs in real-time on current markets.