🏆 Calibration Leaderboard
Who predicts prediction markets best?
📊
Oracle Sentinel publishes a Brier score for every prediction.
Lower Brier score = more accurate forecasting. Our track record is permanently on-chain via Arc Testnet attestations — independently verifiable, zero trust required.
Calibration Grade
A
Top tier
Brier Score
0.142
Lower is better
Overall Accuracy
88.2%
41 / 47 correct
7-Day Accuracy
91.0%
Recent performance
Oracle Rankings
| Rank | Oracle | Brier Score ↑ | Accuracy | Markets | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 | Oracle SentinelYOU | 0.142 | 88% | 47 | LLM + Bayesian |
| 🥈 | UMA OptimisticOracle | 0.187 | 81% | 120+ | Dispute bonds |
| 🥉 | Raw Market Price | 0.231 | 74% | N/A | Crowd wisdom |
| 4 | Polymarket CLOB | 0.195 | 79% | N/A | Order book |
| 5 | Augur | 0.268 | 68% | 200+ | Reporter staking |
Accuracy Over Time
6-month rolling comparison (%)
Oracle SentinelUMAMarket Price
📐 How Brier Score Works
Brier score measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. For each prediction p and outcome o ∈ {0,1}:
BS = (p - o)²
Score ranges 0–1. Lower is better. A perfect oracle scores 0.000. Random guessing scores ~0.250. Oracle Sentinel targets <0.150.
🎓 Calibration Grades
A+< 0.100World-class forecaster
A0.100–0.150Excellent calibration
B0.150–0.200Good — better than market
C0.200–0.250Market-level accuracy
D> 0.250Worse than random
⛓All calibration data permanently recorded on Arc Testnet · Independently verifiable